The recovery of international rubber demand in 2021 is expected to be lower than expected




Salvatore Pinizzotto, secretary-general of the International Rubber Research Group (IRSG), said that despite the strong growth in demand for rubber in Asia, especially China, the recovery of demand in the international rubber market in 2021 is expected to be lower than expected due to possible delays in the large-scale promotion of vaccines.

Among them, the sales growth of automobiles and tires will affect the market demand in the short term. In addition, in the short term, the scrap tire industry is expected to grow significantly. Especially the glove industry, or the key to drive rubber demand to the "next normal".

According to Salvatore Pinizzotto, in 2020, under the influence of travel restrictions caused by epidemic prevention, tire and car sales have been affected to a certain extent, which has led to a significant impact on international rubber demand. Considering the strong demand for economic recovery in major economies this year and the continued expansion of the current vaccination coverage, IRSG expects that natural rubber demand will increase by 7% in 2021, and synthetic rubber demand will increase by 7.2%. As for production, natural rubber production will increase by 5% in 2021. Lower production in Southeast Asian countries will be offset by growth in other producing regions.

In fact, he believes that because the economic recovery in different regions is affected by the spread of the epidemic, anti-epidemic measures and monetary policies, there are differences in the recovery of the entire rubber supply chain. But in general, the rubber industry is currently shifting from the "just in time" production model of the past to a "just in case" production model.

In addition, Salvatore Pinizzotto said that the relevant agencies also need to pay attention to the decline in the attractiveness of agricultural activities and the impact of global warming on rubber production. You must know that rubber planting and harvesting are labor-intensive tasks. In the past period, the price of rubber has continued to operate at a low level, coupled with rising production costs, the number of people participating in rubber planting and harvesting in the market is declining. At the same time, with the increase of extreme weather, rubber planting in some areas has also been affected.